Tuesday, 7 May 2019

Julia Galef on the Intuition Behind Bayes' Theorem

This is absolutely brilliant! ❤️💓💕


8 mins 58 secs. This question of whether or not some phenomenon is a bona fide effect of some specific cause, or whether it is merely a coincidentally observed accident, or a "purely psychological" placebo effect of the subject's knowing that the hoped-for cause is present, is extremely tricky to apply to psycho-social phenomena, for fairly obvious reasons, mainly to do with non-linear feedback from the environment. For example, someone being happy as a result of a real effect of meditation practice, would, one hopes, have a positive effect on their family, friends and neighbours, which would presumably feed-back into the subject's life, and as a result may even improve the efficacy of their medition. Zen medition practice seems, to me, to be based on principles of mind-body-community feedback. So this use of Bayesian inference in an iterative process seems to be essential in evaluation of any socio-economic analysis of cause-and-effect. This network of updating is called a Bayesian Network.


Here is a very strange essay I wrote about four years ago on some things I was thinking about, but which I thought I might never get around to be able to actually do,  because I had run out of money and it  looked like nobody was prepared to help me anymore. So I just blurted out everything I thought that was worth saying, in the hopes that somebody might find it interesting, and be inspired to pick up on something they found here. I was a bit stressed at the time I wrote it, which is my excuse for it seeming manic: it is manic! 😂

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